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The BOJ's June hike is largely priced. The harder test is whether a Ueda-less press conference can explain the JGB taper path without loosening the market's read of Japan's reaction function.

Korea's AI chip boom is not the CPI shock, but it removes the BOK's weak-growth excuse and turns KTB duration into a proxy for AI capex durability.

In Brief The U.S. goods deficit with China has fallen by more than half since 2018, and the political read is now familiar: tariffs worked, China lost share, the chain is moving. The trade ledger says…

In Brief Kalshi just got a $1B Series F at a $22B valuation. But what's really going on is that some smart investors like Coatue, Sequoia, and Andreessen Horowitz are seeing event contracts as a way t…

In Brief The market is treating Hormuz mostly as an energy story. That is too narrow. The cleaner risk is fertilizer: if Gulflinked nitrogen supply stays disrupted into planting and midseason applicat…